Guest article by Nick Hillman, Director of Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI)
The Higher Education Policy Institute (www.hepi.ac.uk) is publishing new opinion poll results that reveal the views of current students towards Brexit and show how these could affect votes at the forthcoming general election.
The data has been provided exclusively to HEPI by the polling firm YouthSight, which specialises in surveying students in representative ways.
The results, which come from 1,047 full-time undergraduates, have not been made available before but they are from the same opinion poll as the latest voting intention figures for students that were published last week.
The fieldwork was undertaken at the beginning of October 2019, and some important things have happened since then (including the Prime Minister agreeing a deal with Brussels), but the picture painted by the responses is nonetheless very clear.
Here, for the first time, HEPI can reveal the latest polling on students’ views towards Brexit. The results come from the polling company YouthSight and have not been published before, although they are from the same poll as the latest widely-reported voting intention figures for students, and cover just over 1,000 full-time undergraduates.
The fieldwork was undertaken at the beginning of October 2019, and some important things have happened since then (including the Prime Minister securing a deal with Brussels), but the picture is nonetheless very clear.
74% of students say the country was wrong ‘to vote to leave the EU’, with just 14% saying the country was ‘right’ to do so and with 12% opting for ‘don’t know’. (See chart above.)
The overwhelming majority of students believe they should get a say over the final Brexit deal, most (70%) via another referendum and 14% ‘through our elected representatives’, with just 16% wanting no say.
If there were to be another referendum, three-quarters (73%) of eligible students would vote Remain and, assuming they were on offer, 8% would back the sort of deal favoured by Theresa May / Boris Johnson and 7% would go for a ‘softer’ deal, with 13% opting for ‘don’t know’.
Most students think the Government has not been listening and engaging effectively to young people on Brexit, with 37% saying they have done this ‘very badly’ and a further 38% opting for ‘badly’ and most of the rest (19%) picking ‘neutral’. Very few say the Government has done this ‘well’ (4%) or ‘very well’ (2%). (See chart above.)
Most students are negative about how Brexit could affect their own prospects, with 34% saying Brexit will change their prospects ‘significantly’ for the worse and 41% ‘slightly’ for the worse, with 13% opting for ‘no change’ and 8% saying their circumstances will ‘slightly change for the better’ and the other 5% opting for ‘significantly change for the better’.
Most students say Brexit could affect how they vote in a general election, with 29% saying it will ‘strongly impact’ on them and a further 42% saying Brexit will affect their vote ‘to some extent’ – just 12% say Brexit will not impact their vote ‘at all’ while 17% opt for ‘don’t know’.
Among those who say their vote is likely to be affected by Brexit (748 respondents), 53% are willing ‘to vote tactically’ over Brexit and 15% are unwilling to do so, with 33% neutral. (See table below.)
|To what extend are you willing to vote tactically in a future General Election in order to achieve your preferred Brexit outcome?||%|
|1 - very unwilling to vote tactically (1.0)||6|
|2 - (2.0)||9|
|4 - (4.0)||29|
|5 - Very willing to vote tactically (5.0)||24|
|Base: 748 (All those who say their vote is likely to be affected by Brexit|
Nick Hillman, Director of HEPI, said:
"The student vote may or may not make a big difference at this election. It all depends on how close the overall result is. But when the student vote is discussed the conversation tends to dwell on issues like tuition fees. In fact, at this Brexit-focused election candidates’ views towards the EU could be a bigger factor when students decide how to vote.
"Most of today’s full-time undergraduates were not at university when the 2016 referendum took place, nor when the 2017 election occurred. They are literally different people to past student voters. But the majority of today’s students are strongly pro-Remain. They want another referendum and most say Brexit could affect how they vote at this election. A sizeable number are willing to consider full-on tactical voting because of Brexit.
"Any candidate who wants to secure the support of local students needs to engage with what they say about a range of issues and avoid treating them as one-dimensional or obsessed only about their own financial position."
The survey was conducted between 3 and 8 October 2019 among a representative sample of 1,047 full-time undergraduate students at UK universities. Quotas were set for course year, gender and university type. All participants are members of YouthSight’s 150,000-strong online research panel and completers receive shopping voucher credits. Results may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
HEPI was established in 2002 to shape the higher education policy debate through evidence. It is the United Kingdom’s only independent think tank devoted to higher education. HEPI is a non-partisan charity funded by organisations and universities that wish to see a vibrant higher education debate. It engages with political parties across the political spectrum and, for example, recently hosted / took part in events at the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat party conferences.
- Brexit tables - multi-wave including latest wave - fieldwork 3rd - 7th Oct 2019
- YouthSight Student Vote article based on polling - Fieldwork 3rd - 7th October 2019
- HEPI - Do older Leave voters get gradually replaced by younger Remain voters such as students
- BBC - Students more likely to vote tactically on Brexit
- Independent - General election: Large proportion of students willing to vote tactically over Brexit, poll suggests
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