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Guest author Nick Hillman asks: 'Will students vote tactically over Brexit? What does the latest polling tell us?'


Guest article by Nick Hillman, Director of Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI)

Tags: Voting

Nick Hillman
Nick Hillman

Nick Hillman has been the Director of HEPI since 2014. He worked for the Rt Hon David Willetts MP (now Lord Willetts), the Minister for Universities and Science, from 2007 until the end of 2013, as Chief of Staff and then Special Adviser in the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills. Nick has led projects involving YouthSight / HEPI collaborations on many occasions including the YouthSight / HEPI Monitors. We are delighted to welcome him as a guest author.

Guest article by Nick Hillman, Director of Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI)

The Higher Education Policy Institute (www.hepi.ac.uk) is publishing new opinion poll results that reveal the views of current students towards Brexit and show how these could affect votes at the forthcoming general election.

The data has been provided exclusively to HEPI by the polling firm YouthSight, which specialises in surveying students in representative ways.

The results, which come from 1,047 full-time undergraduates, have not been made available before but they are from the same opinion poll as the latest voting intention figures for students that were published last week.

The fieldwork was undertaken at the beginning of October 2019, and some important things have happened since then (including the Prime Minister agreeing a deal with Brussels), but the picture painted by the responses is nonetheless very clear.

Here, for the first time, HEPI can reveal the latest polling on students’ views towards Brexit. The results come from the polling company YouthSight and have not been published before, although they are from the same poll as the latest widely-reported voting intention figures for students, and cover just over 1,000 full-time undergraduates.

The fieldwork was undertaken at the beginning of October 2019, and some important things have happened since then (including the Prime Minister securing a deal with Brussels), but the picture is nonetheless very clear.

 

Results

  • 74% of students say the country was wrong ‘to vote to leave the EU’, with just 14% saying the country was ‘right’ to do so and with 12% opting for ‘don’t know’. (See chart above.)

  • The overwhelming majority of students believe they should get a say over the final Brexit deal, most (70%) via another referendum and 14% ‘through our elected representatives’, with just 16% wanting no say.

  • If there were to be another referendum, three-quarters (73%) of eligible students would vote Remain and, assuming they were on offer, 8% would back the sort of deal favoured by Theresa May / Boris Johnson and 7% would go for a ‘softer’ deal, with 13% opting for ‘don’t know’.

  • Most students think the Government has not been listening and engaging effectively to young people on Brexit, with 37% saying they have done this ‘very badly’ and a further 38% opting for ‘badly’ and most of the rest (19%) picking ‘neutral’. Very few say the Government has done this ‘well’ (4%) or ‘very well’ (2%). (See chart above.)

  • Most students are negative about how Brexit could affect their own prospects, with 34% saying Brexit will change their prospects ‘significantly’ for the worse and 41% ‘slightly’ for the worse, with 13% opting for ‘no change’ and 8% saying their circumstances will ‘slightly change for the better’ and the other 5% opting for ‘significantly change for the better’.

  • Most students say Brexit could affect how they vote in a general election, with 29% saying it will ‘strongly impact’ on them and a further 42% saying Brexit will affect their vote ‘to some extent’ – just 12% say Brexit will not impact their vote ‘at all’ while 17% opt for ‘don’t know’.

  • Among those who say their vote is likely to be affected by Brexit (748 respondents), 53% are willing ‘to vote tactically’ over Brexit and 15% are unwilling to do so, with 33% neutral. (See table below.)

To what extend are you willing to vote tactically in a future General Election in order to achieve your preferred Brexit outcome? %
1 - very unwilling to vote tactically (1.0) 6
2 - (2.0) 9
3- (3.0) 33
4 - (4.0) 29
5 - Very willing to vote tactically (5.0) 24
NET: Unwilling 15
NET: Willing 53
Base: 748 (All those who say their vote is likely to be affected by Brexit  

 

Nick Hillman, Director of HEPI, said: 

"The student vote may or may not make a big difference at this election. It all depends on how close the overall result is. But when the student vote is discussed the conversation tends to dwell on issues like tuition fees. In fact, at this Brexit-focused election candidates’ views towards the EU could be a bigger factor when students decide how to vote.

"Most of today’s full-time undergraduates were not at university when the 2016 referendum took place, nor when the 2017 election occurred. They are literally different people to past student voters. But the majority of today’s students are strongly pro-Remain. They want another referendum and most say Brexit could affect how they vote at this election. A sizeable number are willing to consider full-on tactical voting because of Brexit.

"Any candidate who wants to secure the support of local students needs to engage with what they say about a range of issues and avoid treating them as one-dimensional or obsessed only about their own financial position."

 

HEPI’s previous work with YouthSight on students’ views towards Brexit is available here (November 2015), here (December 2017) and here (January 2019).

HEPI’s other recent commentary on student voters is here and here.


Methodology

The survey was conducted between 3 and 8 October 2019 among a representative sample of 1,047 full-time undergraduate students at UK universities. Quotas were set for course year, gender and university type. All participants are members of YouthSight’s 150,000-strong online research panel and completers receive shopping voucher credits. Results may not add up to 100% due to rounding.

HEPI was established in 2002 to shape the higher education policy debate through evidence. It is the United Kingdom’s only independent think tank devoted to higher education. HEPI is a non-partisan charity funded by organisations and universities that wish to see a vibrant higher education debate. It engages with political parties across the political spectrum and, for example, recently hosted / took part in events at the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat party conferences.


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